Nothing like a billion new people to help grow a market. That’s the case of infectious disease in vitro diagnostic testing, in the period that our upcoming report covers. Of all the reasons the markets will grow – new threats, improved tech, increased usage, a key reason the market will grow is new people.
947,900 million of them to be exact, primarily residing in what we term as “developing nations,” contrasting the advanced economies with established healthcare systems. These newcomers will call places like Indonesia, Senegal, India, Peru, Mexico, and Romania their home. Over this period, the population of the developing world is anticipated to escalate from 6.6 billion to 7.5 billion. Consequently, the in vitro diagnostics (IVD) market for infectious disease products in these regions is forecasted to expand at a rate of 5.7%, surpassing the global market growth rate of 4%. (It’s worth noting that the monetary value of the IVD market in developed nations will remain higher due to a more efficient per capita utilization of IVDs and better funding.)
As we’ve written here many different times, the goal in in vitro diagnostics markets will be getting to the “better than five percent growth” markets because big, double-digit growth is a thing of the past.
The IVD market for infectious disease products to developing nations will grow at 5.7% vs. 4.4% of the overall world.
For instance, in our upcoming book Carlson’s Infectious IVD Market Report we will peg ID-IVD sales in Japan at about 3.1% growth next eight years, whereas a few developing nations will have more than double Japan’s growth. The developing world – India, Latin America, Middle East and Africa, Southeast Asia will simply see high revenue growth rates than developed world. It’s true everywhere in IVD, but particularly so in infectious disease which is a front-line, primary-resourced healthcare spend.
As seen in the chart above, featured in our latest report Infectious Disease IVD Markets, to be released in May, the population growth of developed nations will be flat while developed nations will go from 6.5 Billion to roughly 7.5 billion. That is the population of the entire world in 2018, living just in developing nations, by 2031. Obviously it’s a market that can’t be ignored, and it is not – the major IVD companies have presence directly or with distribution in these countries.
A country focus is thus essential for reporting in infectious diseases. Our new report will take the IVD market for Respiratory, HAI, HIV, TORCH, Lyme, and a few other key diseases and cross-tab it for 21 nations and regions, from 2018 to 2031. Unlike most reports, we’ll also explain why the data calls were made, why the trends present in the spreadsheets of data estimated by our analysts are there.
Look out for an announcement of our report in May meanwhile, if you know of anyone who can benefit from EYE ON IVD newsletter, please pass it along.
And if you happen to be at EXECUTIVE WAR COLLEGE in New Orleans next week, I’ll be speaking at a panel along with folks from Sysmex, BCG and CAP Today.
